Game 5 of the NBA Finals heads back East as the Boston Celtics host the Dallas Mavericks on Monday. On Friday, Dallas torched the Celtics 122-84. Tipoff from TD Garden in Boston is set for 8:30 p.m. ET. The SportsLine consensus lists Boston as the 6.5-point favorite in the latest Mavericks vs. Celtics odds, while the over/under for total points scored is 209.5 (see up-to-date odds for every game this week on our NBA odds page). 

Before you make any Mavericks vs. Celtics picks, you NEED to see what the SportsLine Projection Model has to say.

The SportsLine Projection Model simulates every NBA game 10,000 times and has returned well over $10,000 in profit for $100 players on its top-rated NBA picks over the past five-plus seasons. The model entered the 2024 NBA Finals on a sizzling 94-61 roll on all top-rated NBA picks this season, returning more than $2,800. Anyone following has seen HUGE returns!

The model knows Boston forward Jayson Tatum is a go-to playmaker on the floor. Tatum's ability to score from any spot on the court is key to his success. He leads the team in points (24.7), rebounds (9.8), and assists (6) in the 2024 NBA Playoffs. In Game 3, he dropped 31 points. 

The model also knows Dallas is coming off their best performance of the series. They held Boston to 36% from the field and a season-low 84 points. Guard Luka Doncic continues to be the No. 1 threat on the floor with his all-around talent. In the Game 4, he had a team-high 29 points with five rebounds and five assists. 

The model has simulated Mavericks vs. Celtics 10,000 times and the results are in. We can tell you that the model is leaning Over on the point total, and it also says one side of the spread hits in well over 50% of simulations!

Who wins Mavericks vs. Celtics, and which side of the spread hits in well over 50% of simulations? ... Join SportsLine right now to find out which side of the spread you should be all over, all from the model on a 94-61 roll on top-rated NBA picks!